The political effects of the Russian-Ukraine war on international trade

Abstract

The Russian-Ukrainian war, an unprecedented geopolitical event, has triggered profound and far-reaching consequences for international trade. This paper examines the political effects of the conflict on global trade, with a focus on how political decisions, economic sanctions, and realignments among nations are reshaping trade flows and policies. As major exporters of energy, grain, and essential raw materials, Russia and Ukraine have long been integral to global supply chains. The onset of hostilities has disrupted these chains, resulting in global inflationary pressures, rising food insecurity, and a reevaluation of global economic dependencies. Against this backdrop, the study examined the political effects of the Russian – Ukraine war on international trade. This study adopted the historical and content analysis. It is concerned with an in-depth examination of documented data on the basis of which relevant materials were drawn. This study was anchored on the Geoeconomic Power Theory which provides a robust framework for understanding the political effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war on international trade by emphasizing the strategic use of economic tools such as sanctions, trade shifts, and market control, as a primary instrument of geopolitical influence. The data collected for this study was synthesize and analyzed using trend analysis techniques. This study revealed that disruption of supply chains, rising commodity prices, changes in trade relationships, economic consequences, agricultural markets and food security, reorientation of global trade, international trade and sanctions and energy market dynamics were the major impacts of the Russian-Ukrainian war on global trade flows. This study found that sanctions reshape trade dynamics, reconfigure partnerships, drive covert economies, and impact long-term global trade structures. The study also showed that the most significant impacts of long-term consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war on international trade policies were shift from globalization to regionalization, rise of economic blocs and fragmentation, impact on global supply chains and resource security, growth of alternative financial and payment systems, sanctions as a tool of foreign policy, challenges to multilateral trade governance and emergence of resilience and self-sufficiency policies. This study concluded that the political effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war serve as a critical reminder of the intricate interplay between politics and trade. Finally, this study recommended among others that global policy-makers should develop a real-time trade monitoring system that tracks fluctuations in trade volumes and routes affected by the Russian-Ukrainian war. This system should leverage advanced data analytics to identify and predict shifts in global trade flows, enabling businesses to respond proactively to emerging trends.