Identifikasi Model I-Garch (Integrated Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heterocedastic) Untuk Peramalan Value At Risk

Abstract

A stock returns data are one of type time series data who has a high volatility and different variance in every point of time. Such data are volatile, seting up a pattern of asymmetrical, having a nonstationary model, and that does not have a constant residual variance (heteroscedasticity). A time series ARCH and GARCH model can explain the heterocedasticity of data, but they are not always able to fully capture the asymmetric property of high frequency. Integrated Generalized Autoregresive Heteroskedascticity (IGARCH) model overcome GARCH weaknesses in capturing unit root. Furthermore IGARCH models were used to estimate the value of VaR as the maximum loss that will be obtained during a certain period at a certain confidence level. The aim of this study was to determine the best forecasting model of Jakarta Composite Index (JSI). The model had used in this study are ARCH, GARCH, and IGARCH. From the case studies were carried out, the result of forecasting volatility of stock index by using IGARCH(1,1) obtained log likelihood values that 3857,979 to the information criteria AIC = -6,3180; BIC = -6,3013; SIC = -6,3180; dan HQIC = -6,3117. Value of VaR movement of the JCI if it becomes greater the investment is Rp.500,000,000.00 with a confidence level of 95% on the date of July 2, 2015 using a model IGARCH (1,1) is Rp7.166.315,00.